I’m writing this from the NASA Ames Research Park in Silicon Valley, where I’ve just spent the week at Singularity University. Ray Kurzweil (who wrote “The Singularity is Near”) and Peter Diamandis (who founded the X Prize) launched the University as a way to have one place to connect all the exponential technologies that are increasingly merging with each other – Genetics, biotechnology, nanotechnology, robotics and information technology.
The faculty and advisors include industry leaders like Craig Venter, Larry Brilliant, Vint Cerf, James Canton, John Gage, Neil Jacobstein, Astronaut, Dan Barry & Nobel Prize Winner, George Smoot. The question of the week has been how to harness these technologies to solve humanity’s grand challenges.
"You've got to think about big things while you're doing small things, so that all the small things go in the right direction." - Alvin Toffler
"You've got to think about big things while you're doing small things, so that all the small things go in the right direction." - Alvin Toffler
From the week, here are the five top trends I that I believe are at the right stage to step in – not too early, not too late – and that have small, medium and large opportunities in them, so take your pick!
- ROBOTICS – Our machines are coming alive
Eythor Bendor, CEO of Berkeley Bionics, showed us the eLegs, which gives wheelchair users the ability to walk again. The eLegs is a TIME Magazine Top 50 Innovation of 2010. Sebastian Thrun, pioneer of the Google Autonomous Car, brought in the car, and talked about how robot cars would mean an end to road accidents, parking and traffic jams. The cost of components and sensors continue to fall rapidly, which means we are going to see smart automation begin to solve issues from energy conservation and water shortage to mobility and clean streets.
- INSTANT PRODUCTS – Download everything
3D Printing takes automation one step further. Imagine ordering a new pair of shoes, cutlery and door knob online from the other side of the world, and then getting it all instantly with no delivery cost or wait. 3D Printers are growing in sophistication, and will be able to print car parts, machinery and home products on demand – dropping shipping cost and down time, and empowering many areas in poverty or crisis.
- DEEP DATA – The next layer
The next billion dollar start-ups are likely to come from the next layer of our global network. The first layer (The information layer) connected our public, public data on open web sites. The second layer (The social layer) connected our public, private data on social networks. The third layer (The deep data layer) will connect to this all of our private data so that we can crowd-source our best strategies and solutions.
23andMe tests your DNA from which you can learn things like what health risks you have, your traits and your ancestral origins. Crowd-sourcing this information will lead to focused cures and preventions, as well as learning best practices from ‘people like you’. David Rose showed us his Angelsoft angel investor network, where crowd-sourcing your investment criteria will allow you to find the best links based on other angels with similar investing profiles. This layer will lead to full personalisation taking all your variables into account, from your medication to your children’s education.
- INTELLIGENT DESIGN – The invisible web
The dramatic drop in the cost of sensors and immersive technologies, which has led to products like the Xbox Kinect, is moving us to a revolution in design. All Furniture will be intelligent. Touch screens will move from a box to the tables, walls. Homes will wake up and respond to the climate and who’s home. Shops will wake up and give us suggestions and specials based on our online profile and the time of day. Your clothes will power your connections and gadgets. Car Keys will never be lost again.
This design revolution (which is already underway) will mean that everything from urban design to fashion will become an information art. Information science will become a social science.
- INTUITIVE INTERBODIES – Knowing Thyself
As all these changes take place, the most interesting to me is the interface between the real and virtual. It could be argued that Facebook beat Myspace not because it had better technology, but a better interface. The same can be said for Google, Apple, and most other recent successes. A great interface comes from understanding humans than mastering technology – The social dynamics, game dynamics and psychology that makes us do one thing and not do another.
As we move from 2D interfaces to 3D interbodies, those who are best at understanding this will make the best products and make the most money. Ironically, our quest towards the Singularity is making the flow of big brains and big money change their focus from making machines work to understanding what makes us work (and play) and why. Having to explain ourselves to our technology is giving us new distinctions of what it means to be human.
My biggest takeaway from the last week is that the disruptions we have experienced in the last twenty years are mere tremors compared to the coming changes. These changes will solve many of the grand challenges we have failed to solve – from cures to cancer to environmental sustainability. Most importantly, the leaders in technology, in design, in finance and in social good are beginning to unite in a way that hasn’t been seen since the Renaissance, 500 years ago.
So how about you? What will affect you and what will you affect in 2011?
> Extra Reading: Here's an article from TechCrunch from this week on Singularity U...
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8 comments:
Wow that's all so huge, yet so exciting. Being in such a space with like minded people is obviously where Magick happens. Thankyou so much for sharing.
Really interesting.If you want to take a look/get an angle on this kind of technology advancement and angel/VC funding your (and my) old alma Mater at Cambridge Uni run great events for technology entrepreneurs. I mentor on this one every year. email me if you want to know more.
http://www.entrepreneurs.jbs.cam.ac.uk/programmes/ignite/index.html
Amazing, I can't wait!!
Amazing, I can't wait!!
Thank you Roger. WOW. Awesome that you're in there getting the experiences. Brilliant (and Larry himself thrown in!).
Just quickly, that Tech Crunch link to Singularity U brings an Error 404.
Again, awesome stuff. Thank you.
Thanks for this post !
It is really awesome to see in which direction we are headed !
Here is what we do in the media-sphere: www.ml.sun.ac.za
Check us out !
Go well
Dirk
Roger what do you think about mobile and TV web? Will it make us more connected or disconnected?
Thank you for the summary on your week, Roger. We are living in very exciting times - awesome stuff!
Kevin
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